Market forecasts

Update

date: 05.12.2024

text: AUMACON

Car sales forecast 2025: 385,000 new cars in the Netherlands

Despite the many uncertainties prevailing within the Dutch economy, it is of great importance to many parties that an independent forecast of expected sales volumes is made on a regular basis. This also applies to new car sales. AUMACON has a good reputation in this area and has therefore been the Dutch government's advisor for market forecasts of motorised two-wheelers through to trucks for over seven years.

For the new passenger car market, AUMACON assumes 385,000 units for the registration year 2025.

Considerations are:

• The annual average over the past 10 years is 390k.
• In 2025, a significant proportion of new cars sold in 2020 will be replaced; in 2020 (first coronagraph), 355k cars were sold, a below-average year.
• The basic need for car transport/ownership continues to grow; the car is still sought-after and popular.
• The car fleet in the Netherlands is relatively old and growing; the replacement potential is ever increasing.
• (New) cars are expensive in the Netherlands; manufacturers will raise their prices slightly further in 2025.
• In 2025, the new, mostly Chinese brands will experience their first full-sales year. They are keen to make it a success.
• In 2026, the additional tax rate for new EVs'(for the first €30k) will rise to 22%; this will cause a registration spurt by the end of 2025.
• And then perhaps the most weighty argument for a (slight) increase in car sales: after (corona) years of car scarcity, there is now a surplus. Dealers can supply almost all models from stock. Meanwhile, discount offers have also returned. In short, sales are becoming more aggressive again which will undoubtedly lead to additional registrations.

AUMACON forecasts | EN

These forecasts are compiled selflessly and independently and are updated as often as necessary. Our forecasts are constructed and broken down by customer groups, fuel types and model segments.

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