Update
date: 1 October 2026
text: AUMACON
Car sales forecast for 2026: 400,000 new cars in the Netherlands
Despite the many uncertainties prevailing within the Dutch economy, it is of great importance to many stakeholders that an independent forecast of expected sales volumes is produced on a regular basis. This also applies to the sale of new cars. AUMACON has a strong reputation in this field and has therefore been advising the Dutch government for over 8 years on market forecasts ranging from motorised two-wheelers to lorries.
For the new passenger car market, AUMACON forecasts 400,000 units for the registration year 2026.
The considerations behind this are:
- The forecast for 2026 is in line with the average sales volume over the past ten years (389,000 units); over the past forty years, the average annual figure has even been 431,000 units.
- In 2026, a significant proportion of the new cars sold in 2021 will be replaced; in 2021 (the second year of the COVID-19 pandemic), 322k cars were sold, making it a year well below average.
- The basic need for car transport and car ownership continues to grow; the car remains in demand and popular.
- The vehicle fleet in the Netherlands is relatively old and growing; the potential for replacement is constantly increasing.
- (New) cars are expensive in the Netherlands; manufacturers will cautiously raise their prices further in 2026.
- In 2026, a number of new, mostly Chinese brands will experience their first full year of sales. They are keen to make a success of this.
- In 2026, the additional tax liability for new EVs will rise to 18 per cent; this will trigger a slight surge in registrations towards the end of 2025 and have some negative repercussions in 2026.
- Following years of car shortages (due to the pandemic), there is now a surplus. Dealers can deliver virtually all models from stock. Discount campaigns have also made a comeback. In short, sales are becoming more aggressive again, which will undoubtedly lead to additional registrations.
- In 2027, businesses will be faced with the so-called ‘pseudo final levy’, an additional tax on non-fully electric cars in their fleets. This is encouraging the (accelerated) purchase or leasing of EVs and hybrid cars in 2026. Dealers and leasing companies will also register additional stock vehicles at the end of 2026 with the aim of selling them in 2027 on favourable terms.
