Update
date: 12 June 2026
text: AUMACON
Car sales forecast for 2026: 390,000 new cars in the Netherlands
Despite the many uncertainties prevailing within the Dutch economy, it is of great importance to many parties that an independent forecast of expected sales volumes is produced on a regular basis. This also applies to the sale of new cars. AUMACON has a strong reputation in this field and has therefore been the Dutch government’s advisor for market forecasts ranging from motorised two-wheelers to lorries for over eight years.
For the new passenger car market, AUMACON forecasts 390,000 units for the registration year 2026.
Factors taken into account include:
- The forecast for 2026 is in line with the average sales volume over the past ten years (389,000 units); over the past forty years, the average annual figure is actually 431,000 units.
- In 2026, a significant proportion of the new cars sold in 2021 will be replaced; in 2021 (the second year of the pandemic), 322,000 cars were sold, making it a year well below average.
- The basic need for car transport/ownership continues to grow; the car remains in demand and popular.
- The car fleet in the Netherlands is relatively old and growing; the potential for replacement is constantly increasing.
- (New) cars are expensive in the Netherlands; manufacturers will cautiously raise their prices further in 2026.
- In 2026, a number of new, mostly Chinese brands will experience their first full year of sales. They are keen to make a success of it.
- In 2026, the additional tax liability for new EVs will rise to 18%; this will trigger a slight surge in registrations towards the end of 2025 and have some negative repercussions in 2026.
- After years of car shortages (due to the pandemic), there is now a surplus. Dealers can supply virtually all models from stock. Discount promotions have also made a comeback. In short, sales are becoming more aggressive again, which will undoubtedly lead to additional registrations.
- In 2027, businesses will face the so-called ‘pseudo final levy’, an additional tax on non-fully electric cars in their fleets. This will encourage the (accelerated) purchase or leasing of EVs.
